Nova Elevation — separating altitude from noise

I’m finishing this piece over breakfast in Miami Beach while roughly 180 million Americans are freezing — stay warm, stay safe.

Miami may not be an aerospace hub in the classical sense, but it has a credible shot at becoming an early-mover AAM market. Climate matters. Even peak hurricane season — which reliably shuts down traditional aviation — may actually become a proving ground for eVTOL robustness rather than a showstopper. We’ll come back to the structural market limitations later. For now, it’s worth staying with the early-adopter geography.

As shown in the graphic below (SMG Consulting), the eIPP footprint is clearly concentrated in Florida (especially Miami), Texas, and California — effectively the operational gravity centers for most OEMs today. This aligns with continued U.S. government support for AAM. Last year, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy formally unveiled the national AAM strategy, including the eIPP (eVTOL Integration Pilot Program), aimed at expanding partnerships between OEMs, operators, regulators, and infrastructure players.

Source: SMG Consulting 2025

That said, while the U.S. treats eVTOL as a strategic priority, progress remains slow compared with less regulated markets. China continues to move aggressively, and the Middle East — particularly Abu Dhabi and Dubai — has become a real-world sandbox where Archer and Joby are already accumulating operational experience.

Industry forecasts still paint an attractive long-term picture. Depending on whose spreadsheet you trust, global AAM fleets could reach 15,000–30,000 aircraft by the mid-2030s, supporting a $30–50B annual services and operations market. The problem, as always, is the slope of the ramp — not the theoretical peak.

On the OEM front, Vertical Aerospace delivered “surprisingly” solid technical progress with the VX4/Valo platform. They’ve clearly managed to attract serious engineering talent, even though the balance sheet still makes investors nervous. That talent concentration did not go unnoticed: Archer recently hired Vertical’s former Director of Engineering to strengthen its UK engineering footprint — which also makes their GKN wing partnership more strategically logical.

Wisk ended the year on a high note with the first flight of Gen6. Their fully autonomous strategy remains simultaneously the longest road to revenue and, arguably, the only path to a scalable long-term business model. The real question is not technical feasibility — it’s whether Boeing’s strategic patience outlasts the development cycle. With a new aircraft still years away, Wisk may get their shot — but I wouldn’t put meaningful money on the timeline.

Eve (Embraer’s spinout) achieved its maiden prototype flight and recently closed another funding round. There are parallels with Wisk: both ultimately depend on how much strategic oxygen their parent OEMs are willing to provide to AAM over a multi-decade horizon. Despite all this progress in the US, eHang remains the only company with meaningful customer deliveries so far — 41 aircraft in Q3/25. That’s not nothing.

Most Western OEMs are still targeting initial certification windows around 2026–2028, assuming no major regulatory resets, battery surprises, or supply-chain hiccups. History suggests optimism is rarely punished early — only later.

Besides acquiring an airport, Archer has been particularly active on the M&A and IP side: acquiring intellectual property from Lilium and Overair, entering a collaboration with Karem on rotor technology, and buying composite fabrication assets from Mission Critical Composites. One could reasonably ask whether this signals growing skepticism about their own vehicle architecture maturity. Supernal’s recent program pause doesn’t help perception, given how similar the two vehicle concepts were architecturally. Archer’s strong cash position provides runway — but how many redesign cycles are one too many?

Back to vehicle fundamentals. Vertical has made some smart payload tradeoffs: designing around six passengers plus pilot plus ~70 lbs. per passenger. Archer and Joby max out closer to ~1,000 lbs. payload, with Eve and Wisk slightly below. With the exception of Vertical — which remains years away from certification — most near-term platforms will realistically rely on light travelers. That may become a commercial constraint sooner than many investor decks suggest.

Source: Aviation Week

Critics usually focus on batteries, noise, and infrastructure. Payload — and especially luggage allowance — may end up being the more practical customer pain point. Cargo Transportation could therefore emerge as one of the earliest viable use cases, simply because the physics are more forgiving.

I occasionally hear complaints that AAM “wastes” investor money and engineering talent that could be used on “real” aerospace programs. I disagree. eVTOL programs provide an excellent technology incubator for electrification, automation, manufacturing digitization, and supply-chain learning. From a workforce perspective, it’s also a magnet for talent — keeping engineers engaged, current, and creatively dangerous while the industry waits for the next clean-sheet aircraft program. I keep it as Richard Aboulafia said it "Make Aerospace sexy again", this is what AAM does.

OEMs still lean heavily on traditional Tier-1 aerospace suppliers — understandably, given certification requirements (AS9100, NADCAP, EASA Part 21G, etc.). But those suppliers are not structurally optimized to support a sub-$4M vehicle cost target. Let’s be honest: major Tier-1s are highly risk-averse and generally unwilling to participate as true risk-sharing partners — a model that enabled programs like A350 and 787.

Take GKN as a representative example. They engage with Joby, Archer, Vertical (prototype), and Supernal (prototype), yet are owned by private equity that aggressively optimized aerospace exposure for risk and cash generation. Betting on speculative eVTOL volume ramps is not exactly aligned with that mandate. Perhaps that changes once real market demand materializes — but until then, supply chains will continue to prioritize capital protection over bold bets. On the positive side, it’s encouraging to see OEMs collaborating among themselves: Eve sourcing pusher motors from Beta, Archer licensing autonomy IP from Wisk, Archer acquiring fabrication capability - pragmatism slowly creeping in.

And the quiet leader? Beta Technologies. Laser-focused execution, low-noise IPO, no Silicon Valley theatrics. Cargo first. Willing to pivot into sTOL while battery technology matures. No Olympic naming rights, no hype cycles — just engineering discipline. It’s far too early for heroic analogies, but wasn’t there once a serious engineering company in the Pacific Northwest that built its reputation the same way?

With the VFS Symposium in San Jose just days away, the industry increasingly feels like it has separated hype from execution. Insiders have long predicted that commercialization would leave only a handful of serious players standing. We are starting to see that filter engage.

More market updates coming after VFS.

If you’re attending and want to connect — reach out. Always happy to exchange perspectives.